Random
This word is far more powerful then it looks at first glance.
What is random?
ran·dom adj.
- Having no specific pattern, purpose, or objective: random movements. See Synonyms at chance.
- Mathematics & Statistics. Of or relating to a type of circumstance or event that is described by a probability distribution.
- Of or relating to an event in which all outcomes are equally likely, as in the testing of a blood sample for the presence of a substance.
chance n.
- 1. The unknown and unpredictable element in happenings that seems to have no assignable cause.
- A force assumed to cause events that cannot be foreseen or controlled; luck: Chance will determine the outcome.
- The likelihood of something happening; possibility or probability. Often used in the plural: Chances are good that you will win. Is there any chance of rain?
- An accidental or unpredictable event.
"Look around you. Do you really think this could all have come about by chance?"
"Machines cannot do true random, only humans can be random"
Entire religious belief systems hinge on the notion that the reason why god must exist is because the alternative... evolution... life arising from "chance" is simply unacceptable.
What is truly Random? What determines the "trueness" of the randomness?
What random in reality is... is our inability to predict the outcome of an event. If you increase the data that we have access to, randomness disappears.
Run a computer program that generates random numbers. For the vast majority of people on the planet, those numbers would indeed appear to be random. There would be no way for a person to determine what the next number the computer is going to spit out will be.
Talk to a compsci major, and he'll tell you that the numbers the computer is generating are far from random, and in fact can be predicted. They might use a algorithm that bases the number it spits out on a combination of a mathematical equation and the internal computer clock. Or vastly more difficult to predict ones might base it off of thermometers, or other real-world analog processes. But at the end of the day... it can be predicted, and the fact that it can be predicted means that it ceases to be random.
Can humans truly be random?
Right now, humans appear to be fully capable of producing completely random outputs. Is this really the case, or is this a matter of lack of ability to predict it at this point in time?
Much like a computer to a casual observer who cannot predict what the computer will spit out next, humans are to all of humanity. We do not know how the brain operates, and since we do not know the algorithm that the brain uses to produce these seemingly random outputs, we do not have the capability to predict it. But does that mean that it is random?
Take two balls on a pool table. With some basic physics, geometry and trig one can accurately predict what will happen when a certain amount of force (in a given direction) is applied to one of the balls. This can be accurately predicted to within millimeters in a controlled environment. However, what DOES make things harder to predict are the numerous variables that we have difficulty controlling and observing. Those balls are actually made of billions of atoms, each with their own energy states and bonds and "behavioral" guidelines. Small imperfections in the balls, table, air, force applied add up and make our clean equations less accurate and less perfect.
This is why flipping a coin is considered a relatively random act. How will the coin come up... Heads or Tails? The position of the coin on a finger, the amount of energy applied to the coin and thousands of other variables make it nearly impossible to track. If I roll a die, I have a 1 in 6 chance of getting any particular number. It is nearly impossible to predict this number ONLY because of the sheer quantity of variables that we have no method of measuring or tracking. The distribution of mass in the die, the energy and rotational speed of the toss, the surface that it impacts, the energy lost in the collisions... all of that, nearly impossible to track, making it a "random" event. But is it really random? What if we control just one of the variables, and expand its weight to the point where it overwhelms all the other variables? Can we show that in the event that we trivialize the other variables, we destroy "randomness" because we now have the data we need to predict the result? Enter the weighted die. Indeed, we can manufacture dice that are designed to come up with a particular number. This is considered cheating in gambling. And how do we do this? We expand one controllable variable.. in this case, the distribution of mass in the die, to be so large that it overwhelms all other variables and reduces their contribution to the overall equation to be relatively insignificant.
Card counting. Once again, a method of reducing randomness. The solution? Expand the card set to be so large that it makes card counting unviable for a normal human being.
So is there anything that is truly random? Something that we can never predict the outcome?
Quantum particles? Right now, to the best of our knowledge, there is NO way of predicting the location/speed of a quantum particle. But once again, this is merely a result of our lack of knowledge but does not mean that there exists this notion of "truly random."
So why does it matter if a human is capable of being random? Enter the notion of "free will."
For most people and religious institutions, free will is the cornerstone of faith. I have to DECIDE to follow a particular faith, and this decision is made because I have the "free will" to do so.
But in the event that a human in incapable of doing anything random, that means that a human's actions can be predicted. If a human's actions can be predicted, then where is the freedom of choice? If my next decision can be predicted, then that means it is based on some body of data that can be measured, if it can be predicted, then that means I have no choice but to do what I will ultimately do since there is no other possible alternative. If I have no choice, how can "god" hold me accountable for not choosing correctly? And even more so, for those faiths that believe that god is all knowing and knows exactly what you will do regardless of whether or not we can truly be random, they truly cannot believe that I have any say in the matter.
However, is it possible for another human to ever predict the actions of another? This would be akin to predicting the weather. In theory, yes, the weather can be predicted, but the staggering amount of data that is required to do it with any measure of accuracy is far beyond our ability. We would not only need to be able to simulate the vast numbers of atomic reactions on our planet, but we'd have to include our entire solar system as our weather is very much affected by the gravitational effects of other celestial bodies and from the energy coming from the sun, and even beyond that, there will be effects from farther out in our galaxy as we are bombarded by particles from space.
In short, the butterfly that flaps its wings in china causing tornados here is not far off from this notion. We simply do not have the means with which one would require to predict such a complex system, and since we've established that something is only random when we cannot predict it from our PERSPECTIVE, it is essentially "random."
The word "Random" is a human construct, and ultimately is a human idea that does not exist outside of our perception of reality.
As our body of knowledge increases, things become less magical, less shocking, and inevitably less random.
This does not mean that we will be able to ever predict the weather perfectly, or predict exactly what a human's next action/thought may be (or perhaps that it would simply not ever be cost effective to do so), but we may recognize the notion that we are no more or less random than a computer, that whatever we do/say/think is in fact predictable, even if we as humans have not yet built something that can actually predict it.
When we say "it happened by chance" what we are really saying is that "we don't really understand how it works" because in reality, if it happened, that is because it is the only possible outcome that could have happened given the situation.
If I toss a die, I can say I have a 1 in 6 chance of getting any particular number, but that's only because I don't have access to all of the variables involved. Someone who does would not ever say this. They would say "it is going to land on 3 because that is the only possible result given this particular situation."
The idea of universal free will only exists because we believe we can be "truly" random.
Regardless.
We don't live our lives from the perspective of the universe. We live it from our perspective. Even if some power/device greater than our own abilities can predict what we do, we can only experience life from our perspective. And from my perspective, I can't predict what will happen when I toss this die, nor can I predict what you will think next. So from my perspective, playing craps is actually fun, and talking with you is enjoyable. Randomness, Time, Free Will... they all exist but only in our own minds... The same place that our perception of the world and universe exists. |