Fishing Time

In the middle of the ocean, a wild night of storms has shaken the hearts of many. Being patient, the fisherman finally found the first fish he likes at dawn.

To be continued...

Bottom Fishing Time?

Asset Class   Current     Target
----------------------------------
Large         37%         25%
Mid           24%         20%
Small         10%         6%
Int           19%         20%
Emerging      9%          15%
Bonds         3%          3%

My Pro Blog... One Month Later

I've set up a new personal finance blog about one month ago. These're my little accomplishments so far:

• Landed an ad deal that'd already covered two years of expense
• Invited by Forbes to join its Business and Financial Blog Network

With this new blog, I hope to share my financial point of view with those who care. It's not about $ but it's surely nice. Some may wonder how much a pro blog can make. Depending on its traffic, it can generate as little as few hundreds to as much as $100K+ per year.

Oracle Of Omaha to Investors

1. Weak Dollar: "We are happy to invest in businesses that earn their money in euros in France or Italy or sterling in the UK, because I don't have a feeling that those currencies are likely to depreciate against the dollar," said Buffett. "Overall I think that the U.S. continues to follow policies that will make the dollar weaken against other major currencies.... I feel no need to hedge purchases of companies that earn profits in other currencies."
2. Not Paying Attention to the Economic Cycle: "If we knew where the economy was going, we'd do nothing but play the S&P futures market."
3. Low-cost Index Funds: When a shareholder asked for the single best specific investment idea Buffett could recommend to an individual in his 30s, Buffett said: "I would just have it all in a very low-cost index fund from a reputable firm, maybe Vanguard. Unless I bought during a strong bull market, I would feel confident that I would outperform...and I could just go back and get on with my work."

Reference: CNN Money - Buffett to investors: Think small

Commodities

Is commodities' bullish run finally over? Maybe, at least the broken uptrends said so for the short-term. Trend is traders' best friend.*

Back in early March, I was cautiously bullish on commodities as they were way overbought and too hot to handle. Pullbacks would have been great if they indeed held their uptrends intact. Nevertheless, they eventually broke down, and their ongoing correction has become a trend reversal.

While crude oil (USO) is still holding on to its 50 EMA for the moment, agricultural commodities (DBA), consisting of corn, wheat, soybeans, and sugar, have already gone below the 20 and 50 EMAs, so have gold (GLD) and other precious metals.

Amid optimism that the worst of the credit crisis has passed and that the economy is faring better than expected, stocks has been rebounding since mid March (SPY) as hot money flowed back from commodities. In the meantime, dollar is also gathering momentum. As stocks are now up against the wall (downtrend top), a strong breakout from here plus a few more days of staying power will help prove that this is not just another sucker's rally.

Stay tuned.