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dttong
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Interests: **+100% annual return vs Nasdaq +10%
(since Blogging on Nov4, 2004) -- for latest performance details, click "Reviews" (Top-Left link)
**Style=50%Technical Analysis +20%Fundamental Analysis +30%Creative Thinking **Focus=$Cash %level --> Chart indexes to assess outlook for determining $Cash %level **Trading Edge=Hardwork,Research, & Track closely vs Plan DAILY
**TA Theme: Anticipatory. Anticipate short-term rally (rather than buy After breakouts)
Expertise: **Why read SDT Research? Most trading newsletters are 1. "MutualFund" style -- casting too wide a net to catch winning trades (but caught a lot of $losing trades too) and not practical for traders with smaller portfolio. 2. "Day-Trading" style -- too time consuming for Part-time Traders (myself included).
**SDTGoal: Show Part-time traders how it's done to outperform the market signicantly & consistently -- by focusing on few stocks at a time and rigorously evaluate each trade from start to finish. Each trader should customize their own trading system -- based on their unique set of resources: Skills, Experience, Effort, Capital, and Risk tolerance. Readers should not blindly follow SDT, but rather, should view SDT Research as a reference source for ideas to integrate into your own trading system
Message: message meEmail: email me
Website: visit my website
Member Since:
10/14/2004
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| @@@ Vacation @@@* Summer vacation + busy with 3 friends' wedding + Trip to Asia * Be back Oct 18 from trip, likely start posting the week after | | |
| @@@@ UPDATE @@@@(I) UPDATE
* Went camping after last update --> too busy the days before and after...
* This blog has to be less frequent from now on... --> too many things in life going on....
* Not trying to hide, just no time / energy to catch up to the mkt news, etc --> thus, can't write quality stuff
(II) ISRG
What happened to my positions?
I didn't write earlier, but here's the story:
* I had a mental stop @118
* Although I don't check quotes every minute, but I do work hard --> i.e. watch last 30 minutes of trading prior to earnings
* Lucky this time, ISRG earnings come out 10 minutes early and ISRG -10 moments after..... at 3:55pm EST
* If I put in hard stop @118 --> don't know if I could get 118, since the $10 drop from 120 is so fast
* After i saw 110, I put my order in --> I got my fill at 112, a small bounce happened
* Lucky is that next day ISRG around 100 all day and now 97?
* Never let a loss grows big! even if not sold @112, should have sold the gap down @100
(III) CME
* had been watching it since the ISRG damage --> as its TA is bottoming and reversing
++ Bought @460 on Aug 2 --> saw it dips to 452 moments after...
++ Bought more @480 on Aug 4 early morning (s&p 500 inclusion announcement Aug3 after mkt closed)
+ Downside risk @480 is so low --> as s&p announcement usually = bullish
* Days before inclusion to s&p = up 10-15% --> e.g. sndk, cnx, vrsn
* This play is almost riskless --> if not for the Fed's rate decision (that could mean big move down)
* But with most risk taken, comes with reward potential --> Fed event = higher volatility and potential for a wilder ride up
Now expecting (& patiently waiting) a move to $500 by Thursday
+ Monday: no pullback to $480 --> a sign of strength, as Dow -50, CME bases around 485 -- above day-low opening price of 484
* Tues: moving nicely away from 487 area --> 490 looks like a pause, a range expansion (up/down) is a sure thing -- $500 in sight
Outlook:
T - post-Fed move = 60%up, 40% down
* IF +150Dow, +20 to $508 is in sight
W - ? a follow-thru day of Tues' (up or down) move? to $520?
Th - ? how to play the ramp-the-close
* more on trading plan after seeing Tues' post-Fed move | | |
| @@@@ 1 @@@@(I) TRADE
++ Buying 2x ISRG @120 here --> earnings after-hr
(II) Earnings
AMZN
* Volatile post-earnings action continues with AMZN --> high upside and downside very possible for others
* --> down 4 last night, down and Down!!
(III) ISRG
* Is ISRG the next high upside (or downside) stock?
Past earnings:
2005 Q2 +15
2005 Q3 +20
2005 Q4 -15
2006 Q1 +15
2006 Q2 ??
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| @@@@ 1 @@@@(I) Mkt
* Will be quite bullish if can stablize --> Dow -50 or less and then a follow-thru later this week (to trade higher than Monday's high)
(II) ISRG
* Wedn earnings --> should lead to break of symmetrical triangle
* Thinking of long today
(III) Post-Earnings Price Action
* Last week option expiry, price action less volatile than should be --> EBAY, GOOG
* This week's Post-earnings price action quite volatile --> even for small beat / miss
+ SLAB, SNDK
- NFLX
will ISRG be + / - 15%? | | |
| @@@@ WEDN @@@@(I) Mkt
* Bottomed and Trend changing? likely
* Dow+200 --> suggests mkt is fragile and can do volatile swing up / down
(II) GOOG
* GOOG is definitely a better bet to play YHOO earnings --> YHOO -7 (20%) and GOOG -4 (1%), what a difference !!
- YHOO down on guidance, but GOOG has no guidance, what will happen after GOOG earnings?
* TA of GOOG not working out as planned --> now closer to bottom of symetrically triangle (vs at upper range near $425)
* Conclusion: Since uncertain in a decent mkt (even IBM can go up) --> will hold on to my last portion of GOOG
(III) Earnings Risk / Reward
* stocks are punished hard (YHOO, BOBJ); and reward handsomely?? (IBM is so-so) --> Rish is High, Reward is so-so
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