A Win-Win-Win-Win Night

Last night was a night of a bunch of wins and not very many losses. Sounds strange, but I think it's true. Or at least, true in the world of politics where people claim the strangest victories. Perhaps the only loser last night was former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee who finally bowed to reality and out of the race.

Other than that it was wins all around. Wins for Hillary Rodham Clinton by hanging on against a surging Obama to pull out victories in the popular vote and delegate count in Ohio, Texas and Rhode Island. And a win for Obama in the sense that this is getting close to the end of the primary and every election that comes and goes with him still in the lead is another victory for him. (He's up by approximately 100 to 150 delegates right now, depending on whose count you believe.) Of course you'd have to say that he wanted to put the nail in the coffin last night with two daggers in the shape of Ohio and Texas and then a slate of superdelegate endorsements today, but he has to be fairly satisfied with pushing HRC another step from "mathematically challenging" to "mathematically impossible."

Perhaps the biggest winner last night was the Republican party. The Republicans now have a nice tidy family image to burnish for the coming months while HRC and BO slam each other. Basically, the next few months will provide the Republicans with batting practice as they watch arguments/attacks that Democrats try out on each other and spend tons of cash that could have otherwise been used in the general election. Additionally, Republicans can rest, reload, retool for the general election while the Democrats are now facing the very real possibility that they will go straight into a general election with no reprieve whatsoever. Granted, McCain's scheduled shouldn't be considered restful, but it is when compared with the schedules of HRC and BO.

Additionally, the Republicans have to like the fact that Democrats are faced with a choice between one of the most polarizing figures in recent American political history (second to GWB in my opinion) in the person of HRC who will energize the Republican base with her mere presence in the general election and force moderates and independents to McCain, and a candidate, in the form of BO, who continues to struggle to win moderate states. Not only did BO rock and roll through 12 straight (if you count Vermont) wins in Democratic strongholds, only to lose in the first two "redder" contests in a while, but he was only competitive in the bluer areas of the redder states. (Disclaimer: I haven't had enough time to pull any county by county data, this is just based on some Washington Post maps of Ohio and Texas showing preprimary polling data.)

Democrats have to love the turnout they continue to get and the enthusiasm they continue to generate. They also have to love that be it a party blue-blood or a young upstart, their candidate will have a faithful following come November.

This is just my gut feeling, but I think you're going to see big changes in the political landscape between now and Pennsylvania. For one, I'm honestly not sure how much longer BO can maintain the enthusiasm he has going for him right now before it begins to wear thin and wear on others. Anytime a politician has young girls fainting at his rallies, you have to wonder if that means he's U2 or Britney Spears. If he's U2, then look for him to continue to generate hit after hit for decades, if he's Britney, look for him to implode and take desperate measures to regain celebrity status. Secondly, while it has politically minded people fired up, I'm not sure how much longer the general public will welcome, or tolerate, this much election coverage. I have to think that at some point very soon you're going to hit "saturation" and there will be a backlash. When it happens, look a big change in the dynamic of the race.

All in all, I have to think that Barack still goes to bed at night feeling relatively comfortable. Hillary will probably pick up a significant number of delegates in Pennsylvania on April 22nd, but that's a ways down the road and it looks like it will be too little too late. In my opinion, Hillary only has two weapons left: Superdelegates and Barack himself. Look for her to start some really strong "whip" tactics with Harold Ickes leading the charge to corral supers and look for Hillary to begin to surreptitiously leak dirt on Obama. If there's an uptick in the number of negative stories about his past, you'll know where they're originating. Finally, look for Hillary to try to put enough pressure on Obama for him to make a mistake (a casual misstatement or a poor policy decision),

This is me going to bed happy...

Feb. 18th forward

Feb. 18^th

·         Now:

o       Superdelegates beginning to defect from Clinton campaign

§         Most notably members of the Congressional Black Caucus.  Hillary’s only hope right now is to stay strong in the superdelegates and win the large states (OH and TX, possibly PA) by substantial margins.

o       HRC substantially ahead in Ohio and Pennsylvania but statistically tied in TX.

§         As previously mentioned, because of the proportional delegate allocation in the Democratic primaries, she must win by large margins in order to gain ground in the delegate race with Obama.

o       HRC finally wins NM primary (adding 1 delegate)

§         The count was finally completed but only added one delegate to HRC’s count.  Look for this to be a picture of the future if the race continues to be close.  We can expect extended, and contested, vote counts in multiple states.

o       Rush and McCain

§         I am starting to believe that Rush is deliberately playing a strategy to help McCain win in November.  No doubt he was very anti-nomination but now that it has happened I believe if you look at how Limbaugh is acting and what he’s saying you can see that he’s positioning McCain as best as possible under the circumstances.

§         http://www.nytimes.com/2008/02/15/us/politics/15rush.html

·         Looking ahead:

o       Were Barack to get the nomination, as is looking increasingly likely, the current polls in OH, PA and TX could provide an extremely interesting glimpse into the future and show what the electoral landscape will look like the late summer and autumn months.  Thus far, Obama has carried states with large groups of traditionally Democratic voters (e.g., the southern states with a significant black population or the states with large union voting blocs) but been very weak in swing-states.  He has had trouble matching Clinton’s strength in the swing-states.  In order to win this November the Democratic candidate will have to carry the states where Obama has been the furthest behind: FL, TX, OH, PA ect.  If he’s not even competitive in those states then it will prove to be quite an easy contest for Republicans in the fall.  Let me make it very clear, I’m not saying that it will be an easy contest, just that Obama has to find a way to start doing better in battleground states.

Feb. 25^th, 2008

Looking Back:

• Obama continues winning streak
• Hawaii
• This win was less than significant.  He was born there and HI voters value community.  HRC didn’t campaign there.
• Wisconsin
• This was a very, nay extremely, significant victory for BO.  Both because up until right before the primary HRC’s staff was touting it as an important state that they could win and because he made significant demographic strides in WI. 
• He won white and female voters for the first time.
• This was also his first victory in a swing state.  And just like that he answers my challenge from a week before.  I do still think that Obama is weaker in moderate states because so many voters view him as the liberal choice.
• He won by 17.4% (58.1 to 40.7%) when polls only had him up about 5%.  This brings up an entirely different story altogether.  The polling this year has been atrocious.  HRC was supposed to win Iowa, only to come in third.  Obama was supposed to dominate New Hampshire, only to lose.  The polls were off by as much as 15% for his margin of victory with South Carolina and in Maine some polls showed Hillary winning by 19% when she actually lost!  Something is going on here.  I think it’s a combination of changes in our society (more cell phones which don’t get reached in phone polls, less willingness to take surveys etc.) and people gaming the polling for their own reasons.  Could be a white guy who is embarrassed to admit he’s voting for Obama or a lady who feels she’s selling out females by supporting Obama etc.  All in all, I don't know and people much smarter than I are confused by it as well so I'm not even trying to figure it out.
• Obama's plagiarism "scandal".  
• Not really a scandal at all.  He and Deval share the same consultant, David Axelrod, (considered the Karl Rove of the Democratic party) and trade ideas on a regular basis.  In fact, Deval and Barrack are close friends and political allies and trade ideas with regularity, and have for years.
• Besides, let's be honest, this isn't academia, this is politics where people borrow ideas all the time.  Those people are called "speechwriters" or "advisors."
• John McCain’s “sex” scandal:
• My initial analysis was that it was incredibly weak as written.  To the point that it appears to be a hit job.  It's basically a litany of old negative news about McCain.  It brings up the Keating Five scandal and then says that eight years ago he spent too much time with a female lobbyist and so his staff made him back off.  
• The basic result of the story was that 1) McCain is using it (with good effect in my opinion) to unify the conservative base behind him and 2) the NYT is getting pilloried for what is unarguably bad journalism at best and base partisanship at worst.
• McCain sent out a fundraising appeal hours after the story hit with an image of the front page and a “liberal media attacking, help!” mantra.
• The NYT public editor (a sort of ombudsman) said it was shoddy journalism.  The SF paper ripped it as displaying a liberal bias.  In short the Times lost and McCain won with this story.

Looking ahead:

• March 4^th is OH, TX, VT and RI
• Clinton is up by an average of 2.8% in TX
• Clinton up by 8.8% in an average of polls in OH
• Not enough for HRC to win, she must win BIG to gain ground on the 99 delegate lead BO has overall and the 159 delegate lead he has among pledged delegates.
• If she continues to lose than her superdelegate lead will continue to diminish and she’ll be in real trouble.

Additional reading:

• http://online.wsj.com/article/SB120356078969481875.html
  http://www.boston.com/news/nation/articles/2007/04/16/patrick_obama_campaigns_share_language_of_hope/
• http://www.tnr.com/politics/story.html?id=8b7675e4-36de-43f5-afdd-2a2cd2b96a24
• http://www.politico.com/blogs/jonathanmartin/0208/McCain_raising_money_off_NYT_story.html
• http://www.nytimes.com/2008/02/21/us/politics/21mccain.html?ei=5065&en=30275248afff65bf&ex=1204174800&partner=MYWAY&pagewanted=print

A Quick Run Up To Where We Are Now

 ·         Looking Back:  (Important stories of the past.)

o       These are excerpted from my briefings presented in the past.  New comments are in italics.

 Jan. 21^st

o       Michigan Primary

§         Democratic

·         Meaningless, because no delegates at stake.

·         Obama not on ballet.  However, he still got 40% of vote compared to HRC with 55.3%.  Looking back, this was the beginning of an important trend: Obama’s strength in strongly union or traditionally Democratic states.  I thought then that it boded poorly for HRC but didn’t fully grasp just how badly.

o       South Carolina

§         Republican

·         John McCain won with 33.2% of the vote to Mike Huckabee’s 29.9%.

·         While the race was close, it was interesting that McCain won in a solidly conservative state.  Beating even Huckabee with Mike’s evangelical pull.  That show’s McCain’s for real.  Nothing really shocking there but it was the beginning of McCain’s run toward the nomination.

Jan. 28^th

·         Some quit action:

o       Fred Thompson quits on Tuesday

o       Mike Huckabee close to quitting  I wrote this on Jan. 28^th, guess this one

I  got wrong eh?

o       Determine impact on primary

§         Most likely boost to Romney because both are relatively conservative candidates and Romney is positioned to the right of McCain.  That bump never materialized for reasons I haven’t fully grasped but I think mostly because Giuliani dropped out soon enough to offset that bump.

·         Rudy's in danger in Florida:

o       However, he has extensive early and absentee voter programs which could provide him a bump not reflected in polls.

o       Campaign insiders stress to me that Giuliani’s campaign is not short on cash, despite repeated assertions to the contrary in the media.

·         South Carolina:

o       Obama won 55 percent of the overall vote. Senator Hillary Clinton received 27 percent, while former Senator John Edwards garnered 18 percent.

·         New “Swift-Boating”

o       Dems on Bush 43

o       Reps on Clinton 42 (or Deval Patrick etc.)

§         Look for this to be a prolific tactic in the general election.  The opposing party will pick an allied person to the candidate and use a 527 group to hit ‘em and hit ‘em hard.

·         Kennedy Endorsements

o       Caroline Kennedy endorsed Obama calling him “a president like my father” which could be huge.

o       Ted Kennedy also endorsed Obama.

o       This has potential to really affect party faithful.  Looking back I think I got this one right.  In my mind, this marked the beginning of Obama’s steady charge among white, female and union voters and the beginning of HRC’s lock on those demographics.

Feb. 4^th, 2008

o       24 states have primaries or caucuses on Tuesday

o       McCain’s up by an average of 18 points nationally.

o       HRC up 6.8 points.  Doesn’t reflect current reality because:

§         Significant narrowing on Democratic side as some polls (the more recent ones) now have them tied.  Opposite true for Republicans as McCain pulling away.

o       On the Republican side, McCain made big gains across every demographic, including self-identified conservatives (+14) and White evangelical Protestants (+7).

o       Among those located in states that will be voting on February 5th, Obama gained 8 points in the last three weeks, while McCain gained 18.

o       Bill Clinton’s negative rating increasing.

§         41% now say that they don’t want BC back in the WH. (Up from 34%)

§         This combined with HRC’s steady negative rating is a significant problem.  Again, if only I knew how true those words would prove to be.

o       Obama now holds a slight lead in CA, where HRC had lead by as much as 20%. This was also significant because it neutralized the delegate gain HRC would have obtained.

o       My feeling is that the Republican race will be over on Tuesday while the Democratic race will continue.  Haha!  I got one right!  Granted this was a pretty tepid pick the day before the race.

National picture:  A significant story of the primary so far is the incredible strides Republicans have taken in narrowing the gap.  Conventional wisdom had Republican’s getting killed in November but in the latest head to head polls, McCain leads HRC AND Obama.

VICTOR DAVIS HANSON: "Three unexpected developments have given Republicans a shot this year at winning — once thought impossible, given the normal desire of the electorate for a fresh party after eight years, and worries about Iraq and the economy. All can change, but for now they have a real shot."

http://corner.nationalreview.com/post/?q=YzBlOWRmNGExMDI2Zjg4MTljYTRiYjhjMWJmMmNjYmI=

Three issues are 1) Iraq 2) Obama’s surge and the Clinton’s “clumsy response” and 3) the collapse of Rudy which drove support to McCain who’s very electable.

This is obviously a story that has yet to fully play out, and the article comes from National Review, but I have been consistently surprised at the strength of Republicans in head-to-head polling.  I think for lots of reasons, some of which I’ll expound on at a later date, this race will be very competitive.

Vice Presidential Granted this is really early, but everybody kept asking.

• McCain
• Sen. Joseph Lieberman
• Strong independent appeal
• Potentially damaging to conservative base.  However, already despised there.
• Gov. Jeb Bush
• Strong with conservative base.  Anathema to moderates and independents.
• This scenario is well-sourced.
• Gov. Mike Huckabe
• See notes on Jeb.
• Gov. Tim Pawlenty (MN)
• Gov. Mark Sanford (SC)
• Obama
• HRC
• Oprah
• Jus’ playin.  He said that on the Late Show.
• Sen. Chuck Hagel (notably a Republican)
• Phil Bredesen -- Not a household name, he is now the Democratic governor of Tennessee and a former mayor of Nashville
• Tim Kaine -- The Democratic governor of Virginia.
• Michael Bloomburg.
• Al Gore

• HRC
• Obama
• Michael Bloomburg (all this posturing might be a way to get the VP nod)
• Joe Biden (he’s ruled himself out)

Feb. 11^th, 2008

• HRC manager (Patti Solis Doyle) quits and is replaced by former first lady’s chief of staff (Maggie Williams)
• Williams is fiercely loyal.  Has questionable ethics (Secret Service said she removed lots of documents from Vince Foster’s office after he died which she denied).  Ruthless.  Completely new to professional politics (never even been on staff of a campaign) but thoroughly versed in politics having been around it for a more than two decades.  Only time will truly tell, but I still question the wisdom of bringing in someone who'd never even been on a campaign staff to RUN a campaign for president.
• Potomac primary coming up
• HRC’s campaign chairman (Terry McAuliffe, former DNC chair) said that Barack Obama could make a good running mate if the New York senator is the Democratic Party's nominee.
• Probably just another HRC attempt to stake-out the “inevitable” candidate ground.
• Weekend Round-Up
• Obama swept Maine, Louisiana, Nebraska and Washington.
• His winning margins ranged from substantial to crushing. In Maine, he led 59 percent to 40 percent with 99 percent of the precints reporting. In Louisiana, Obama defeated Clinton, 57 percent to 36 percent. He won in Nebraska by a 68 percent to 32 percent margin and in Washington 68 percent to 31 percent.
• Many media outlets will mistakenly report that this was not a surprise.  3 of the 4 wins were expected for Obama but HRC had been favored to win Maine and ended-up losing by 19%.
• HRC has continued to hammer the racial theme.  In response to Obama’s LA win she said that “[y]ou had a very strong and very proud African- American electorate, which I totally respect and understand[.]"  This implies that he’s only winning because he’s black.  Many people feel that it’s incendiary at the least, racist at the worst, and it will be interesting to see how well that continues to go over with voters.

This is me on the other side of busy season...

You're about to get hit with a flurry of postings as I post the briefings I've been giving internally at the firm over the last few months.  Sorry I haven't been posting them, I've just been swamped.

One quick story that caught my attention.  For years now members of the Democratic party have been pressuring the IRS to step up scrutiny of nonprofit organizations.  Specifically churches getting involved in politics, or coming anywhere near it.  This was because the religious right has been an obvious power bastion for the Republican party.  So it caused no small amount of joy among Republican party leaders when this story hit today:

Chalk another one up to the law of unintended consequences.