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| A Long Solitary Journey Completed....Desperado, why don’t you come to your senses?
You been out ridin’ fences for so long now
Oh, you’re a hard one
I know that you got your reasons
These things that are pleasin’ you
Can hurt you somehow
Don’ you draw the queen of diamonds, boy
She’ll beat you if she’s able
You know the queen of heats is always your best bet
Now it seems to me, some fine things
Have been laid upon your table
But you only want the ones that you can’t get
Desperado, oh, you ain’t gettin’ no youger
Your pain and your hunger, they’re drivin’ you home
And freedom, oh freedom well, that’s just some people talkin’
Your prison is walking through this world all alone
Don’t your feet get cold in the winter time?
The sky won’t snow and the sun won’t shine
It’s hard to tell the night time from the day
You’re loosin’ all your highs and lows
Ain’t it funny how the feeling goes away?
Desperado, why don’t you come to your senses?
Come down from your fences, open the gate
It may be rainin’, but there’s a rainbow above you
You better let somebody love you, before it’s too late
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| 02/16/06Soooooo...
here
we are sitting at the baddest poker table in the world: the global
markets. Someone here, might be a whale or might be the sucker, is
sweating bullets. They are sweating bullets because theyre doing just
like everyone else, the carry trade, but they made some small mistake
somewhere. Maybe they took a loan on his clients money's and bought
himself a South Beach condo, or maybe he used it to engratiate himself
with the elite in NYC or Greenwhich and show that, he too, could donate
vast sums of money to have University Buildings or Performance halls named after him. Regardless, with the borrowe money more expensive than his holdings, his margin for error aint so great.
And
now thingas are getting juicy. Hes got all his chips on the table. And
a lot more of the house's chips mixed in to boot. "But darn that stack
looks big," he thinks to himself. Maybe" so big people will buy his
bluff and think hes too big to fail." Plus,he thinks, I got Hedge fund written all over me. And im from NYC, Cali, Greenwhich, biotch!
"So?" .It aint even his own money he trades with. He makes fees.
meanwhile the 100 to 1 thing worked great magnifying his profits on the way up, but now they murdering him on the way down.
So
hes holdin out. What else can he do? He knows, if he starts sellin,
every other HF manager out there is thinking the same thing. And the
lemmings that they are, inspite of the quarter millino dollar degrees,
they would still all rush for the doors at the same time as soon as
they smell someone running for the doors first. This particluar lemming
knows hes not gonna be able to get out alive IF, WHEN, thats the case.
So all he does is wait, hope and pray. And we wait here with them. and
fuck hoping and praying.
and what exactly is it they're waiting, hoping, praying for?
Hell if i care. They're already dead men. | | |
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There is a tide in the
affairs of men, which, taken at the flood, leads on to fortune;
omitted, all the voyage of their life is bound in shallows and in
miseries; on such a full sea we are now afloat; and we must take the
current clouds folding and unfolding beyond the horizon when it
serves, or lose our ventures.
W.S.
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| Life is about fat tails. Period.
"smart" people always seem to ignore this truth. If you go (prior
to the last few months of course) to mmm, oh say, hi high ranking
republican/demorcat (political pissant if you will) from harvard or
yale or another "name brand" instituition, and you say: " what are the
chances of a few cat 4 /5 storms hitting the gulf disrupting the US
centers of gas, fuel and transportation. in a single hurricane season, theyll laugh at your face.
Another example would say go to a super duper wall st banker in Ritzy
NYC w bright lights and bustling noise and say; " what say you good sir
about a largest financial calamity affecting all knave alike? poor,
rich, educated, retarded? say good sir, a crash of infinite degree."
theyd laugh at you in their 3k suite, penthouse w wife and mistres/es in
SoHo and tell you to find a well charging financial advisor to alleviate you of your fears.
LIfe isnt about the 27615
days of your life where everyhting was normal, but the other 10
where they didnt. actually say 8 cause the first two
are gonna be your birth and your death. And thats a nice
"Fat" % .02896 of your life.
You might disagree, and in fact, decent betting man that i am,
im sure you are. Im also pretty sure youd listen to the harvard grad
and the guy in the nice spiffy suit. Alas, that is why history repeats itself, again and again.
So take a deep breath and truly conteplate your genius.
Shits bout to hit the fan. and there aint no better time to shine than
in the pitch fuckin dark. The mother of all fat tails comes this way.
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